30% drop in cases in England after the national “lockdown” in November

New Covid-19 infections fell by about 30% in the UK after almost three weeks of restrictive measures (national lockdown). For the first time since August, the reproductive R index, that is, the transmission of the virus from one vector to other humans, fell below one (1), to about 0.9%, as the number of new cases decreases at a rate of 0% to 2 % per day, a clear indication that the “lockdown” had worked.

That’s according to a large-scale React survey of about 105,000 volunteers conducted by scientists at Imperial College London in collaboration with public opinion research firm Ipsos Mori, according to Reuters, New Scientist and the Guardian. .

The second national “lockdown” in England began on November 5, in order – as happened in other countries (including Greece) – to stop the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and to protect the national health system . Between 16 October and 2 November, England recorded 132 cases per 10,000 people, while between 13 and 24 November 96 per 10,000 (a reduction of almost one third or 30%).

There has been a large reduction in cases in the areas most affected by the second epidemic, mainly in the northwest and northeast of the country, as well as in Yorkshire. Infections remain relatively high in the Midlands, especially in the west, the region with the highest proportion of infections in England today.

The country is expected to exit the national lockdown on December 2nd and return to its previous regime of more focused but stringent regional restrictions. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been criticized both by members of his own Conservative party for imposing a national lockdown as an unnecessary restriction on freedoms, and by the opposition Labor Party for the exact opposite, for imposing a national lockdown too late. The approval of the new more focused measures will be put to a vote in Parliament on Tuesday and Johnson may need Labor votes to pass the new regulations to more than a third of the English population.

Dr Lime Smith, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, estimated that after a relative easing in December due to Christmas, a new lockdown might be needed in January or February, as the R’s transmission rate is expected to rise again. of increased social contacts on holidays.

The SAGE Scientific Committee, which advises the British government, also estimated something similar in the new year and, based on its models, estimates that for each day of relaxation of the measures, it will then take five days of new restrictions to control the epidemic.